WHAT DRIVES INVESTORS TO MAKE INVESTMENT DECISIONS? ANALYSIS OF HEURISTIC BIAS AND LONG-TERM ORIENTATION
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Sep 26, 2022
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Abstract
This study aims to investigate the effect of heuristic biases such as overconfidence bias, availability bias, and representativeness bias on the investors’ investment decisions on the Indonesian stock exchange (IDX), as well as the moderating role of long-term orientation. By using a structured questionnaire, a total of 404 responses have been collected from individual investors who have made transactions in the Indonesian capital market, especially stocks. The relationships between variables were tested by applying the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) method by using the SmartPLS 3.3.7 software. The results show that overconfidence bias, availability bias, and representativeness bias have a significant and positive effect on investors' investment decisions. Meanwhile, the moderating effect of long-term orientation is significant only on the effect of overconfidence bias on investment decisions. This shows that the long-term orientation of investors strengthens the effect of overconfidence bias on investment decisions. Information availability bias and representativeness bias in this study have no significant moderating effect of long-term orientation. This research is expected to be able to provide new insights about the role of heuristic bias in individual investors' investment decisions in the stock market.
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AKSA, Baihaqi; WIJAYANTI, Dwi Marlina.
WHAT DRIVES INVESTORS TO MAKE INVESTMENT DECISIONS? ANALYSIS OF HEURISTIC BIAS AND LONG-TERM ORIENTATION.
Proceedings of the International Conference of Islamic Economics and Business (ICONIES), [S.l.], v. 8, n. 1, p. 147-160, sep. 2022.
ISSN 2541-3333.
Available at: <http://conferences.uin-malang.ac.id/index.php/iconies/article/view/1906>. Date accessed: 27 apr. 2024.
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References
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Achjari, D. (2004). Partial Least Squares : Another Method Of Structural Equation Modeling Analysis. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Indonesia, 19(3), 238–248.
Ahmad, M., & Shah, S. Z. A. (2020). Overconfidence heuristic-driven bias in investment decision-making and performance: mediating effects of risk perception and moderating effects of financial literacy. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1108/jeas-07-2020-0116.
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Aurigemma, S., & Mattson, T. (2019). Effect of long-term orientation on voluntary security actions. Information & Computer Security, 27(1). https://doi.org/10.1108/ICS-07-2018-0086.
Bakar, S., & Yi, A. N. C. (2016). The Impact of Psychological Factors on Investors ’ Decision Making in Malaysian Stock Market : A Case of Klang Valley and Pahang. Procedia Economics and Finance, 35(October 2015), 319–328. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)00040-X.
Bazerman, M., Loewenstein, G., & Moore, D. (2002). Why Good Accountants Do Bad Audits. Harvard Business Review.
Bonna, A., & Amoah, R. A.-M. (2019). Influence of Culture on Investment Decisions: A Cross-Sectional Study of Ghanaian Population. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 11(6(J)), 38–51. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v11i6(j).2955.
Bowers, A. H., Mitsuhashi, H., Greve, H., & Baum, J. A. C. (2014). Competitive Parity, Status Disparity , and Mutual Forbearance : Securities Analysts ’ Competition for Investor Attention. Academy OfManagement Journal, 57(1), 38–62. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2241497.
Brahmana, R., Hooy, C. W., & Ahmad, Z. (2012). The role of herd behaviour in determining the investor’s Monday irrationality. Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance, 8(2), 1–20.
Abdin, S. Z. ul, Farooq, O., Sultana, N., & Farooq, M. (2017). The impact of heuristics on investment decision and performance: Exploring multiple mediation mechanisms. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 674–688. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.010.
Achjari, D. (2004). Partial Least Squares : Another Method Of Structural Equation Modeling Analysis. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Indonesia, 19(3), 238–248.
Ahmad, M., & Shah, S. Z. A. (2020). Overconfidence heuristic-driven bias in investment decision-making and performance: mediating effects of risk perception and moderating effects of financial literacy. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1108/jeas-07-2020-0116.
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Bowers, A. H., Mitsuhashi, H., Greve, H., & Baum, J. A. C. (2014). Competitive Parity , Status Disparity , and Mutual Forbearance : Securities Analysts ’ Competition for Investor Attention. Academy OfManagement Journal, 57(1), 38–62. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2241497.
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Buratti, S., & Allwood, C. M. (2019). The effect of knowledge and ignorance assessments on perceived risk. Journal of Risk Research, 22(6), 735–748.
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Chen, C. S., Cheng, J. C., Lin, F. C., & Peng, C. (2017). The role of house money effect and availability heuristic in investor behavior. Management Decision, 55(8), 1598–1612. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-10-2016-0725.
Chhapra, I. U., Kashif, M., Rehan, R., & Bai, A. (2018). An empirical investigation of investor ’ s behavioral biases on financial decision making. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 8(3), 99–109. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.1007/2018.7.3/1007.3.99.109.
Chin, W. W. (1998). The partial least squares approach to structural equation modeling. Modern methods for business research (Issue G. A. Marcoulides). Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Dale, S. (2019). Heuristics and biases : The science of decision-making Heuristics and Biases – The Science Of Decision Making. Business Information Review, 32(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/0266382115592536.
Fahim, F., Khan, M. A., & Ali, A. (2019). Impact of Overconfidence on Investor ’ s Investment Decision : Moderating Role of Risk Perception and Religiosity-A Survey of Pakistan Stock Exchange Impact of Overconfidence on Investor ’ s Investment Decision : Moderating Role of Risk Perception and Rel. September 2020. https://doi.org/10.31384/jisrmsse/2019.17.2.6.
Flammer, C., & Bansal, P. (2017). Does a long-term orientation create value ? Strategic Management Journal, 1827–1847. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.
Galavotti, I., Lippi, A., & Cerrato, D. (2021). The representativeness heuristic at work in decision-making : building blocks and individual-level cognitive and behavioral factors. 59(7), 1664–1683. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-10-2019-1464.
Ghozali, I., & Latan, H. (2015). Partial Least Squares: Konsep, Teknik dan Aplikasi Menggunakan Program SmartPLS 3.0 (2nd ed.). Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.
Harrison, E. F. (2011). Management Decision Interdisciplinary Models of Decision Making. MCB University Press, 31(8).
Hayat, A., & Anwar, M. (2016). Impact of Behavioral Biases on Investment Decision ; Moderating Role of Financial Literacy. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1–14.
Heutel, G. (2019). Prospect theory and energy efficiency. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 96, 236–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.06.005
Hirshleifer, D. (2015). Behavioral Finance. The Annual Review of Financial Economics, 7, 133–159. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-092214-043752.
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Ahmad, M., & Shah, S. Z. A. (2020). Overconfidence heuristic-driven bias in investment decision-making and performance: mediating effects of risk perception and moderating effects of financial literacy. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1108/jeas-07-2020-0116.
Ahmad, M., Zulfiqar, S., Shah, A., & Abbass, Y. (2020). The role of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decision-making : evidence from an emerging economy. Management Decision. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-09-2019-1231
Alwathainani, A. M. (2012). Consistent winners and losers. International Review of Economics and Finance, 21(1), 210–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2011.05.009.
Aurigemma, S., & Mattson, T. (2019). Effect of long-term orientation on voluntary security actions. Information & Computer Security, 27(1). https://doi.org/10.1108/ICS-07-2018-0086.
Bakar, S., & Yi, A. N. C. (2016). The Impact of Psychological Factors on Investors ’ Decision Making in Malaysian Stock Market : A Case of Klang Valley and Pahang. Procedia Economics and Finance, 35(October 2015), 319–328. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)00040-X.
Bazerman, M., Loewenstein, G., & Moore, D. (2002). Why Good Accountants Do Bad Audits. Harvard Business Review.
Bonna, A., & Amoah, R. A.-M. (2019). Influence of Culture on Investment Decisions: A Cross-Sectional Study of Ghanaian Population. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 11(6(J)), 38–51. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v11i6(j).2955.
Bowers, A. H., Mitsuhashi, H., Greve, H., & Baum, J. A. C. (2014). Competitive Parity, Status Disparity , and Mutual Forbearance : Securities Analysts ’ Competition for Investor Attention. Academy OfManagement Journal, 57(1), 38–62. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2241497.
Brahmana, R., Hooy, C. W., & Ahmad, Z. (2012). The role of herd behaviour in determining the investor’s Monday irrationality. Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance, 8(2), 1–20.
Abdin, S. Z. ul, Farooq, O., Sultana, N., & Farooq, M. (2017). The impact of heuristics on investment decision and performance: Exploring multiple mediation mechanisms. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 674–688. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.010.
Achjari, D. (2004). Partial Least Squares : Another Method Of Structural Equation Modeling Analysis. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Indonesia, 19(3), 238–248.
Ahmad, M., & Shah, S. Z. A. (2020). Overconfidence heuristic-driven bias in investment decision-making and performance: mediating effects of risk perception and moderating effects of financial literacy. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1108/jeas-07-2020-0116.
Ahmad, M., Zulfiqar, S., Shah, A., & Abbass, Y. (2020). The role of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decision-making : evidence from an emerging economy. Management Decision. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-09-2019-1231.
Alwathainani, A. M. (2012). Consistent winners and losers. International Review of Economics and Finance, 21(1), 210–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2011.05.009
Aurigemma, S., & Mattson, T. (2019). Effect of long-term orientation on voluntary security actions. Information & Computer Security, 27(1). https://doi.org/10.1108/ICS-07-2018-0086.
Bakar, S., & Yi, A. N. C. (2016). The Impact of Psychological Factors on Investors ’ Decision Making in Malaysian Stock Market : A Case of Klang Valley and Pahang. Procedia Economics and Finance, 35(October 2015), 319–328. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)00040-X.
Bazerman, M., Loewenstein, G., & Moore, D. (2002). Why Good Accountants Do Bad Audits. Harvard Business Review.
Bonna, A., & Amoah, R. A.-M. (2019). Influence of Culture on Investment Decisions: A Cross-Sectional Study of Ghanaian Population. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 11(6(J)), 38–51. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v11i6(j).2955.
Bowers, A. H., Mitsuhashi, H., Greve, H., & Baum, J. A. C. (2014). Competitive Parity , Status Disparity , and Mutual Forbearance : Securities Analysts ’ Competition for Investor Attention. Academy OfManagement Journal, 57(1), 38–62. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2241497.
Brahmana, R., Hooy, C. W., & Ahmad, Z. (2012). The role of herd behaviour in determining the investor’s Monday irrationality. Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance, 8(2), 1–20.
Buratti, S., & Allwood, C. M. (2019). The effect of knowledge and ignorance assessments on perceived risk. Journal of Risk Research, 22(6), 735–748.
Chandra, P. (2016). Behavioural Finance. McGraw Hill Education.
Chen, C. S., Cheng, J. C., Lin, F. C., & Peng, C. (2017). The role of house money effect and availability heuristic in investor behavior. Management Decision, 55(8), 1598–1612. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-10-2016-0725.
Chhapra, I. U., Kashif, M., Rehan, R., & Bai, A. (2018). An empirical investigation of investor ’ s behavioral biases on financial decision making. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 8(3), 99–109. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.1007/2018.7.3/1007.3.99.109.
Chin, W. W. (1998). The partial least squares approach to structural equation modeling. Modern methods for business research (Issue G. A. Marcoulides). Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Dale, S. (2019). Heuristics and biases : The science of decision-making Heuristics and Biases – The Science Of Decision Making. Business Information Review, 32(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/0266382115592536.
Fahim, F., Khan, M. A., & Ali, A. (2019). Impact of Overconfidence on Investor ’ s Investment Decision : Moderating Role of Risk Perception and Religiosity-A Survey of Pakistan Stock Exchange Impact of Overconfidence on Investor ’ s Investment Decision : Moderating Role of Risk Perception and Rel. September 2020. https://doi.org/10.31384/jisrmsse/2019.17.2.6.
Flammer, C., & Bansal, P. (2017). Does a long-term orientation create value ? Strategic Management Journal, 1827–1847. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.
Galavotti, I., Lippi, A., & Cerrato, D. (2021). The representativeness heuristic at work in decision-making : building blocks and individual-level cognitive and behavioral factors. 59(7), 1664–1683. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-10-2019-1464.
Ghozali, I., & Latan, H. (2015). Partial Least Squares: Konsep, Teknik dan Aplikasi Menggunakan Program SmartPLS 3.0 (2nd ed.). Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.
Harrison, E. F. (2011). Management Decision Interdisciplinary Models of Decision Making. MCB University Press, 31(8).
Hayat, A., & Anwar, M. (2016). Impact of Behavioral Biases on Investment Decision ; Moderating Role of Financial Literacy. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1–14.
Heutel, G. (2019). Prospect theory and energy efficiency. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 96, 236–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.06.005
Hirshleifer, D. (2015). Behavioral Finance. The Annual Review of Financial Economics, 7, 133–159. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-092214-043752.
Hofstede, G. (2001). Geert Hofstede , Culture ’ s Consequences : Comparing Values , Behaviours , Institutions , and Organizations Across. International Journal OfCross Cultural Management.
Hussain, H., Naz, I., Qureshi, F., & Ghafoor, A. (2017). Borsa _ Istanbul Review Heuristics and stock buying decision : Evidence from Malaysian and Pakistani stock markets. Borsa Istanbul Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2016.12.002.
Itzkowitz, J., & Itzkowitz, J. (2017). Name-Based Behavioral Biases : Are Expert Investors Immune ? Journal of Behavioral Finance, 0(0), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2017.1308940.
Jain, J., Walia, N., & Gupta, S. (2020). Evaluation of behavioral biases affecting investment decision making of individual equity investors by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Review of Behavioral Finance, 12(3), 297–314. https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-03-2019-0044
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–293.
Kasoga, P. S. (2021). Heuristic biases and investment decisions : multiple mediation mechanisms of risk tolerance and financial literacy — a survey at the Tanzania stock market. Journal of Money and Business, 1(2), 102–116. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMB-10-2021-0037.
Kemenkeu. (2021). Aktivitas Pasar Modal Indonesia Di Era Pandemi. KPKNL Kupang.
Khan, I., Afeef, M., Jan, S., & Ihsan, A. (2020). The impact of heuristic biases on investors’ investment decision in Pakistan stock market: moderating role of long term orientation. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 13(2), 252–274. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-03-2020-0028.
Khan, M. U. (2017). Impact Of Availability Bias And Loss Aversion Bias On Investment Decision Making , Moderating Role Of Risk Perception. Journal of Modern Developments in General Management & Administration, 1(1), 17–28.
Klein, A. (1998). Firm Performance And Board Committee Structure. The Journal of Law and Economics, 41(1), 275–303.
Lubis, P. K. D. (2019). Influence of Knowledge Investment and Investment Motivation Against the Interest of Investing in the Stock Market on Economic Education Status of Students of State University of Medan. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1387(1).
Madaan, G., & Singh, S. (2019). An Analysis of Behavioral Biases in Investment Decision-Making. International Journal of Financial Research, 10(4), 55–67.
Mahajan, J. (1992). The Overconfidence Effect in Marketing Management Predictions. Journal of Marketing Research, 29(3), 329–342.
Mccannon, B. C., Asaad, C. T., & Wilson, M. (2016). Financial competence , overconfidence , and trusting investments : Results from an experiment. Journal of Economic and Finance, 590–606. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-015-9328-4.
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