Psychological And Environmental Predictors Of Mathematics Achievement: An Ordinal Logistic Regression Analysis
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the simultaneous and partial effects of discipline, learning motivation, and parental support on the mathematics learning outcomes of high school students at SMA Negeri 1 Grati, Pasuruan Regency. Previous educational studies heavily relied on linear ordinary least squares regression, which is methodologically flawed when treating ordinal categorical academic achievements. Addressing this research and scope gap, this study employs an ordinal logistic regression framework to model the probabilities of achieving higher mathematics competency categories (low, medium, and high). A quantitative explanatory research design was adopted using cross-sectional data collected from 104 students selected via simple random sampling. Data were gathered using a validated 4-point Likert scale questionnaire and official academic documentation of cumulative mathematics scores. The empirical findings reveal that discipline, learning motivation, and parental support simultaneously exert a significant positive effect on mathematics achievements (Chi-Square = 218.584, p < 0.001). Individually, all three variables significantly predict higher academic categories (p < 0.05). Learning motivation emerged as the most dominant psychological predictor, with an odds ratio of 5.88, followed closely by learning discipline (OR = 5.65) and parental support (OR = 5.31). The Nagelkerke Pseudo R-Square indicated that the model explains 100% of the variance, signaling a potential complete separation due to highly structured predictive attributes. These insights emphasize the critical integration of internal psychological triggers and external environmental support structures in reinforcing secondary mathematics education frameworks in Indonesia.
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